The African Democratic Congress (ADC) is aiming to be the Nigerian opposition party to unseat President Bola Tinubu in the January 2027 elections. Under its umbrella, Tinubu’s top three opponents in the last elections have united in an attempt to present a common front against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Tinubu won the 2023 election with 36.6% of the votes cast. His rivals scored a combined 60.9% of the vote: Atiku Abubakar (pictured) of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had 29.1%; Peter Obi of the Labour Party 25.4%; and Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP) 6.4%.
Now they have decided to pool together on one platform, the ADC, as a surer path to victory. But the party has yet to choose its presidential candidate, and it is not yet clear whether they will be able to coalesce around one.
They are, for now, united around the idea of getting rid of Tinubu. The ADC wants to make the election a referendum on Tinubu’s policies, with the pains of his economic reforms – including ending fuel subsidies and floating the naira – still being felt among the populace.
But there are no clear policy thrusts beyond undoing some of the measures introduced by Tinubu and launching a probe into allegations of corruption against the government.
Competing ambitions?
A major problem facing the ADC is how to manage the ambitions of the men who want to be its presidential candidate: Abubakar; Kwankwaso; Obi; and Rotimi Amaechi, a former transport minister under the APC government of Buhari who later fell out with Tinubu.
Abubakar and Kwankwaso are both from northern Nigeria, so their ambitions run counter to the unwritten convention among the political class to rotate the presidency between northern and southern candidates every two terms. Obi and Amaechi, both from the south, fancy their chances, but would require northerners Abubakar and Kwankwaso to shelve their ambitions until 2031.
As usual, it will take winning the support of two of the three largest ethnic groups – the Hausa, the Yoruba, and the Igbo – plus a healthy smattering of votes from ethnic minorities, to secure the presidency.
Party officials have already said that the ADC will choose its candidate by consensus rather than through a gruelling primary process.
But none of the candidates has so far shown a willingness to drop out.
Abubakar, a perennial presidential candidate, touts his solid support in the predominantly Muslim north of the country.
In the past he has promised to change the political structure of Nigeria by devolving power to the country’s six geopolitical regions.
Obi lays emphasis on reducing the cost of governance through more frugal spending while investing in education. He points to his youth support. Kwankwaso is quick to elaborate on why his experience and educational qualifications put him ahead. Amaechi hopes to profit from the clash of ambitions.
Legal problems dog ADC
But the ADC may not be on the ballot at all unless it resolves current legal disputes. On 1 April the Independent National Election Commission (INEC), informed the ADC that it no longer recognised its leadership headed by David Mark, who was Senate president from 2007 to 2015, and Rauf Aregbesola, a former interior minister under the APC government led by the late President Muhammadu Buhari.
After the opposition political heavyweights chose in 2025 to coalesce under the pre-existing ADC, rather than forming a new party, the old leadership stepped aside for Mark and Aregbesola at a convention in July 2025.
But two months later Nafiu Bala-Gombe, who had been the deputy national chairman in the old executive, filed a court challenge to the leadership takeover. He also disowned documents said to show that he had voluntarily resigned.
Justice Emeka Nwite of the Federal High Court in Abuja ruled on 4 September for the “status quo ante” to be maintained pending the determination of the suit. The Mark-led executive continued to pilot the affairs of the ADC until the 1 April re-interpretation of the court ruling by the INEC threw that leadership into question.
Still, the ADC ignored its legal difficulties and went ahead with a 14 April national convention, during which Mark and Aregbesola’s leadership was reaffirmed. Bala-Gombe was expelled on 14 April. “Those who fear a united ADC came for us through the courts, the institutions, and bureaucratic obstruction; we will not cower before tyranny,” Mark said. “What is at stake is not just ADC as an opposition, it is the very survival of our democracy.”
Unity or division?
The ADC’s case follows a pattern of internal crises that have rocked the leading opposition parties since Tinubu emerged victorious in 2023. The PDP, which was in power for 15 years until it was ousted by the APC in 2015, was already deeply divided before the last elections. Nyesom Wike, current minister of the Federal Capital Territory, has led a PDP faction supporting Tinubu. Atiku Abubakar officially resigned from the PDP on 14 July 2025, citing “irreconcilable differences” and a deviation from the party’s founding principles as reasons for his departure.
The Labour Party’s problems started after the elections, during which Obi’s surge in popularity, particularly among young people, brought him a significant haul of 6.1m votes. A dispute centred on control of the party’s executive committee led Obi to move to the ADC.
Coalitions have brought success in the past – a coalition of political parties led by Buhari and Tinubu, joined by disgruntled members of the PDP, became the APC which went on to win the 2015 elections.
But Tinubu and his supporters believe that the ADC’s unity is temporary at best. A “coalition of confusion” was how Tinubu described the ADC at a recent ruling party event in Abuja. Aviation minister Festus Keyamo has hailed Tinubu as “a master strategist” capable of making short work of the new opposition front.
“You cannot beat the master at his own game,” Keyamo said in a 12 April statement. “You cannot outfox the man who taught almost all of us how to play opposition politics.”