C\u00f4te d’Ivoire is forging ahead – driven by strong performances across a broad range of sectors, including extractives, agro-industrial and services. Forecasts by the IMF predict that the West African country will expand by 6.4% in 2026, putting it among Africa’s top ten performers.<\/p>\n
The recent discovery of the Calao South gas field, announced in February by oil major ENI, and the announcement in January of up to $190m in investment in the Doropo Gold Project by Australian miner Resolute, add further momentum to the country’s growth trajectory over the next five to ten years.<\/p>\n
“Cote d’Ivoire has become the undisputed growth engine of the wider region, and this is increasingly being recognised,” says Mark Bohlund, senior credit research analyst at Redd Intelligence, a business advisory firm.<\/p>\n
On the macroeconomic front, positive ratings from S&P and Moody’s have buoyed investor confidence and allowed the country to borrow on international market at comparatively favourable rates. The country raised $1.3bn in February via a 15-year international bond with a yield of 5.39% – its lowest financing cost in five years.<\/p>\n
The next five years<\/p>\n
With those macroeconomic fundamentals in place, the question for C\u00f4te d’Ivoire is no longer simply about how to develop the economy, but how to ensure that its benefits are shared more evenly across the country. While President Alassane Ouattara’s re-election to run for a fourth term in 2025 was criticised by opponents, supporters claimed it as a boon for business and the economy. Business leaders highlight a period of sustained economic progress.<\/p>\n
“President Ouattara’s legacy is as a builder of both infrastructure and institutions,” says Philippe Poinsot, lead partner at the Abidjan Consulting Group, an investment advisory firm which works with clients in C\u00f4te d’Ivoire and across Africa.<\/p>\n
By reforming regulation and the business environment, Ouattara’s administration has attracted large-scale investment to drive infrastructure development and investment into key economic sectors. C\u00f4te d’Ivoire has courted a range of global investors, ranging from traditional Western partners such as France to countries such as China and Turkey.<\/p>\n
The defining challenge of Ouattara’s next five years may lie less in creating an enabling environment for business and investment, and more in ensuring the wealth generated by the private sector is retained within the economy and channelled towards the benefit of local communities.<\/p>\n
Indeed, critics have at times accused Ouattara of being overly aligned with Western – particularly French – economic interests, reflecting both his international background and the continued prominence of French firms in C\u00f4te d’Ivoire’s economy. With strongmen surging to power in countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger on the back of anti-French sentiment, Ouattara needs to demonstrate that the pro-West position will translate into real development gains for everyday people.<\/p>\n
Investment in social sectors<\/p>\n
Poinsot suggests that further investment in social sectors such as health and education could drive greater economic growth, building on successful commitments to “hard” areas of the economy such as infrastructure and energy, which lead to immediate revenue generation. Along with garnering praise from the population, investment in education would also tackle a key bottleneck in the economy: talent.<\/p>\n
Unlike countries such as Sierra Leone and Liberia, where the legacy of conflict continues to weigh on development outcomes and is cited frequently, C\u00f4te d’Ivoire finds the impact of its civil war, roughly from 1999 to 2011, seems somewhat more muted.<\/p>\n
However, despite sustained investment to raise education standards nationwide, the legacy of conflict remains unavoidable, with segments of the population entering the labour market having experienced significant disruption to their schooling.<\/p>\n
“As the economy expands, the availability of skilled talent is becoming an increasingly important factor. Addressing this gap will require continued ambition and coordination between government and the private sector”, says Poinsot.<\/p>\n
The large presence of global corporations in Abidjan also distorts the market, as talent migrates towards the highest salaries. This puts pressure on smaller companies and startups, which do not have the cash to attract the talent required to grow. On the other hand, global companies often train up talent – improving skills in the workforce.<\/p>\n
While this is not essentially different from most other African countries, it does add weight to the idea that the government should focus on human capital, having prioritised infrastructure and commerce for several years. According to the World Bank, C\u00f4te d’Ivoire allocated 3.6% of its GDP to education in 2024, which is less than other more developed African countries such as Kenya (4%) and South Africa (6%).<\/p>\n
Cacao presents problems<\/p>\n
Another part of the economy that requires significant attention is the crucial cacao sector. The local industry is facing mounting strain from price volatility and tighter state controls, as efforts to guarantee higher prices for smallholder producers have created friction with exporters. Climate change, ageing tree stocks and the spread of disease are also weighing on yields, with erratic rainfall patterns increasing uncertainty for smallholder farmers who dominate production.<\/p>\n
Bohlund says: “The sustainability of the cocoa sector continues to be uncertain as the inefficient marketing board system delays price signalling. As a result, farmers didn’t benefit from the boom in cocoa prices in 2024 to 2025 and are now stuck with unsold stocks as cocoa prices have tumbled.”<\/p>\n
As the largest exporter of cacao globally, the sector is the backbone of C\u00f4te d’Ivoire economy, constituting up to 15% of GDP and 40% of export earnings (around $5bn in 2022). While domestic manufacturing has taken off in other sectors such as rubber, only around 2.4% of exports in the cacao sector constitute finished chocolate products.<\/p>\n
While other countries such as Benin and Gabon have had great success in re-shoring value chains – establishing finished product factories in special economic zones (SEZs) for commodities such as cotton and timber, respectively – C\u00f4te d’Ivoire is yet to take full advantage of its sector. With as much as a quarter of the population reliant on the cacao sector for their livelihoods, the government’s challenge over the next five years will be to strike a balance between the commercial priorities of global chocolate companies and the needs of smallholder farmers who underpin the industry.<\/p>\n
Ultimately, the success or otherwise of the government in supporting this demographic, along with the needs of the wider populace, will determine whether C\u00f4te d’Ivoire continues its growth through the remainder of Ouattara’s presidency and beyond.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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