As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration nears the three-year mark the country finds itself at an intersection of ambition and reality: sweeping reforms that seek to reset Nigeria’s flailing economy, a public mood that oscillates between wary scepticism and impatient hope, and a foreign-policy choreography capped by a state visit to the United Kingdom this March. The trip, to be hosted by the king and queen at Windsor Castle, is being billed in official dispatches as both a diplomatic milestone, and a commercial opportunity.
Tinubu’s political posture since taking office in 2023 has been unapologetically executive. He arrived with the reputation of a consummate political operator, a veteran and maestro of Lagos power-brokering who promised decisive action on decades-old problems: fuel subsidies, currency chaos, and a tax base barely holding together.
On the domestic front, that decisiveness has translated into high-risk, high-visibility decisions including subsidy removals and currency unification that provoked immediate pain, but aimed to unlock investor confidence. Critics say the moves were rushed and socially insensitive, while supporters point to the improved headline metrics and renewed market interest. The truth, as is often the case, sits between the press releases and the protests.
“When [President] Tinubu took the twin decisions shortly after his swearing-in, I thought he had effectively strapped a suicide vest to his administration,” says Clement Oloyede, a senior digital journalist based in Abuja, the nation’s capital. He adds that two years on, it is fair to say they may well have been the most consequential decisions for the country, for better or worse.”
Nasiru Lawal Abubakar, an Abuja-based journalist, says since coming to power nearly three years ago, Tinubu has taken some courageous decisions, which his predecessors could not, or at best, foot-dragged over.
“These include the removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of foreign exchange rates, which had given many, especially those connected to those in power, an easy path to stupendous wealth. While the government keeps arguing that the decisions have since started yielding results, with the federal, state, and local governments now getting more revenue from the federation account and rising foreign reserves leading to macroeconomic stability, it is apparent even to the government that this has not yet translated into a better life for the people, especially ordinary folks.”
Abubakar noted that power is still epileptic in many areas, but the cost is rising. “The government also keeps borrowing, despite the money reportedly being saved through the removal of subsidies and other painful policies. The palliatives introduced by the government, such as the student loan scheme and free transport, to cushion some of the effects of the policies, are far too inadequate,” he adds.
Economically, Tinubu’s administration can point to some measurable wins. The Central Bank of Nigeria has begun nudging rates lower after a long, tightening cycle, a sign that disinflationary pressure is finally being felt and that monetary policy may be able to pivot toward growth. The bank’s modest rate cut in late February underscored that shift. Official statistics and independent assessments have also shown pockets of recovery: some growth in both oil and non-oil sectors, and easing food inflation that has been politically toxic for successive governments. The roll-back of crippling fuel subsidies freed up funds that the government says will be reinvested into infrastructure and social programs.
Yet macro improvements have not erased micro-level hardship. For ordinary Nigerians, the past three years have been a study in trade-offs. When subsidy bills were curtailed and the naira adjusted, the government’s argument was fiscal prudence and long-term competitiveness. But those adjustments came with higher transport and energy costs and a brief spike in headline inflation that, while now moderating, inflicted real pain on households.
Oloyede posits that although the implementation and the buffers meant to cushion the effects have left much to be desired, the improving economic indicators offer a silver lining. “The hope now is that these gains will begin to translate into tangible relief for ordinary citizens. That said, the government must do more, particularly on security, to enable productive sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, to realise their full potential.”
The administration’s political capital has been stretched thin by the need to explain why short-term austerity is supposed to yield medium-term payoff. Tinubu’s posture, considered firm, and even occasionally dismissive of his detractors, has not endeared him to a populace that measures success in accessible terms: stable electricity, cheaper food and visible public services.
On one unforgiving front, the electricity sector has remained stubbornly dysfunctional with over five grid collapses in the past 12 months. Recent reports of steep drops in gas supply to power plants and rolling load shedding as a result, were a blunt reminder that fiscal fixes alone cannot generate light at the switch. The power sector’s debt overhang and underinvestment remain structural handicaps. Unless grid and fuel-supply problems are addressed, businesses and households will continue to pay an invisible tax in productivity, and comfort.
Security, as Oloyede mentioned, remains another variable in the Tinubu equation. The government has shuffled personnel, pursued localised strategies and leaned on traditional leaders in some regions. Successes have been uneven and costly; the persistence of kidnappings, farmer/herder clashes and pockets of insurgency keep international investors cautious and domestic voters anxious. The administration insists that these are problems requiring patient calibrations, not quick fixes, a sobering if familiar refrain. Add to all this the controversial military presence of the United States in a number of locations in Northern Nigeria.
Abubakar also believes that while the government points to the rising number of terrorists and bandits neutralised as evidence of progress, many communities have been deserted due to constant fear of attacks, with farms, schools, and markets abandoned as the rate of kidnappings for ransom remains high.
Internationally, Tinubu’s approach has been pragmatic rather than grandstanding. The upcoming state visit to the United Kingdom is a useful prism through which to view his foreign-policy instincts: seek trade, reassure partners about reforms, and reposition Nigeria as a nation open for business. That the visit is the first Nigerian state visit to the UK in over three decades adds ceremonial heft and also gives Tinubu a stage to litigate his economic narrative to audiences that matter for capital flows and bilateral cooperation. Observers will watch whether the pomp yields concrete trade, investment pledges, or merely pageantry and photo opportunities.
There are, however, signs that external actors are responding. Multilateral institutions and foreign investors have expressed cautious approval of some reforms, and international credit lines and proposals for infrastructure financing have followed. But endorsement from outside will only take Tinubu so far. Legitimacy in Abuja and Lagos depends on domestic delivery. On this score, the administration’s political calculus has been twofold: use reform to attract capital, then use that capital to underwrite public projects that can be shown to voters. It’s the classic statecraft gamble, with the optics critical and the margin for error slim.
If there is a tonal theme to Tinubu’s three years, it is transformation framed around short term but necessary discomfort. The president wants to be seen as the man who administered the bitter medicine now so the country can enjoy good health later. That posture resonates with technocrats and financiers, but worries constituency groups who measure outcomes in immediate welfare. The coming state visit to London offers a tidy narrative device for the administration in the shape of a capstone of international acceptance. But whether it will translate to durable domestic political capital is far from guaranteed.
The Tinubu era so far, which he has described as transiting from ‘stabilisation to acceleration’ could be described as unapologetically managerial: political networks deployed to secure reforms, fiscal levers pulled to balance books, and diplomacy used to court buyers for Nigeria’s future.
For citizens facing daily difficulties, the scorecard is mixed. According to Abubakar, “Unless [the government] matches the expectations of the people, nothing will make much sense. As they say here, of what use are statistics to a hungry person?”
Tinubu’s challenge as he boards that flight to London is to convince the world Nigeria is worthy of investment and convince Nigerians that the pain was worth it.